Canada 11 Liberals won't run in Ontario election, and that's a problem for Kathleen Wynne

14:06  07 april  2018
14:06  07 april  2018 Source:   cbc.ca

Chantal Hébert: Deathbed budgets in Ontario and Quebec akin to pre-election Hail Mary passes

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The number of veteran Liberal candidates on Kathleen Wynne ' s team is shrinking and that will make her task of winning re- election even tougher than it already is. Three Liberal MPPs revealed in co-ordinated announcements on Thursday they will not run in June.

June 12, 2014. The Liberal Party under Kathleen Wynne wins a majority government in the 41st Ontario general election . " 11 Liberals won ' t run in Ontario election , and that ' s a problem for Kathleen Wynne ".

a group of people posing for a photo: These Ontario Liberals have announced they will not be running in the June 7 provincial election: (Top row, L to R) Michael Chan, Tracy MacCharles, Grant Crack, Eric Hoskins; (Middle row, L to R) Liz Sandals, Dave Levac, Brad Duguid, Deb Matthews; (Bottom row, L to R) Monte Kwinter, Mario Sergio, Glen Murray.© Ontario Liberal Party These Ontario Liberals have announced they will not be running in the June 7 provincial election: (Top row, L to R) Michael Chan, Tracy MacCharles, Grant Crack, Eric Hoskins; (Middle row, L to R) Liz Sandals, Dave Levac, Brad Duguid, Deb Matthews; (Bottom row, L to R) Monte Kwinter, Mario Sergio, Glen Murray.

The number of veteran Liberal candidates on Kathleen Wynne's team is shrinking and that will make her task of winning re-election even tougher than it already is.

Three Liberal MPPs revealed in co-ordinated announcements on Thursday they will not run in June. This brings to 11 the number of Liberals who are throwing in the towel, nearly one-fifth of the caucus.

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On election day, Wynne 's Liberals led province-wide all night as they captured a fourth term in office, and moved from minority to majority government. " 11 Liberals won ' t run in Ontario election , and that ' s a problem for Kathleen Wynne ". CBC News. Retrieved April 7, 2018.

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It's not uncommon for MPPs to quit ahead of an election. Their stated reasons for choosing not to run vary, from seeking other opportunities, to health, to retirement after long careers in office. And it's something that happens within all parties (four New Democrats won't be running again, and one Progressive Conservative).

But for so many Liberals not to seek re-election, with the party trailing in the polls , opens up room to conclude that they don't like their chances of winning. The opposition parties are only too happy to provide metaphors involving rats and a sinking ship.

The main reason the departures hurt Wynne politically is quite simple: incumbents, for the most part, tend to win.

That tendency does not hold if there is a big mood for change, as there certainly could be in this election. But campaigners from all parties will agree that it is harder for a challenger to knock off an incumbent than it is to win an open riding.

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In explaining her choice not to support Kathleen Wynne 's Liberals , McCallion said "As mayor, I never ran the city based on debt. " 11 Liberals won ' t run in Ontario election , and that ' s a problem for Kathleen Wynne ".

a group of people posing for the camera: Kathleen Wynne will head into the Ontario election campaign with no more than 46 Liberal incumbents running.© CBC Kathleen Wynne will head into the Ontario election campaign with no more than 46 Liberal incumbents running.

The Liberals need all the help they can get. The polls already suggest Wynne has an uphill battle to win. The incumbents quitting won't make it any easier.

These latest withdrawals means the Liberals will have at most 46 incumbents running. Ontario's expanded number of ridings means this time, to win a minority, a party needs to take at least 50 seats, The threshold for a majority is 63.

So for the Liberals to win, a decent number of their first-time candidates will need to pull off victories.

Liberal MPPs who won't seek re-election

  • Tracy MacCharles​
  • Michael Chan
  • Grant Crack
  • Eric Hoskins
  • Brad Duguid
  • Deb Matthews
  • Liz Sandals
  • Dave Levac
  • Monte Kwinter
  • Mario Sergio
  • Glen Murray
  • The departures of the 11 MPPs put a bunch of ridings into play. The Liberals won by margins of less than 10 per cent in the last election in the ridings of London North Centre, Brantford-Brant and Humber River-Black Creek, according to CBC research that transposes the 2014 results to the new riding boundaries.

    With nine weeks to go, the Ontario election is Doug Ford's to lose

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    TORONTO -- In an 11 th-hour bid to save her party from decimation, an emotional Kathleen Wynne admitted Saturday that the governing Liberals will lose the Ontario election next week but urged voters to ensure neither of her rivals wins a majority.

    Analysis. Kathleen Wynne ' s problem : 11 Liberal veterans not seeking re- election . In Ontario , the Liberals under Kathleen Wynne trail Doug Ford' s Progressive Conservatives by about 17 points ahead of the June 7 election .

    Incumbents not running also mean that ridings won comfortably by the Liberals in successive elections (Guelph, Scarborough Centre, York Centre, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell) become clear targets for the opposition parties.

    Research by CBC polling analyst Éric Grenier suggests a party typically loses about three to five percentage points in a riding when its incumbent doesn't run. It's not huge, but it can make all the difference in a close race.

  • CBC Poll Tracker: Where the Ontario parties stand today
  • 3 more Ontario Liberals (2 of them cabinet ministers) decide not to run again
  • Doug Ford unveils campaign bus, 'For The People' slogan .
    A large mid-April ice storm didn't stop Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford from unveiling his new campaign bus and slogan on Sunday. Ford offered a glimpse at his election bus at the Toronto Coach Terminal downtown, despite police and city officials urging people to stay off the roads this weekend.

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